Brescia 2-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Perugia meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Brescia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Perugia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Perugia's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Brescia against 1.20 for Perugia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Brescia, 1 for Perugia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 52% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 36% | Perugia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.39 xG and Perugia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.075 / defence 0.874 | Perugia attack 0.855 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.061. Data: 41 Brescia games / 41 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 51% | Draw 28% | Perugia 21%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Perugia 4.76. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 50% | Perugia 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 51% | Draw 28% | Perugia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Brescia 1.39 / Perugia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.075 / def 0.874 | Perugia attack 0.855 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Brescia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Perugia xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Perugia kick off?
Brescia vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Perugia?
Brescia 2 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Brescia vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Perugia part of?
Brescia vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 51% chance of winning, Perugia a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Brescia and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Perugia?
Record (3 meetings): Brescia 2W | Draws 0 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Brescia and Perugia in?
Brescia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Perugia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brescia's attack rating (1.07) and Perugia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.85x) against Brescia's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.62
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.18
0.79
Perugia xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
5%
18.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Brescia and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Brescia and 0.79 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 18W 15D 9L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Perugia's form line: 14W 17D 11L from 42 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Brescia against 1.40 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (9W 8D 4L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 8W 8D 5L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.02 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Perugia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Early Season
Perugia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Perugia in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 18W 15D 9L in their last 42 games (1.64 PPG), while Perugia have gone 14W 17D 11L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Perugia away?
Brescia's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.67 PPG; Perugia away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Brescia or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Perugia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 4-0 on 4 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Brescia
0
Draws
2
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Perugia?
From 5 meetings on record, Brescia have won 3, Perugia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Perugia 4-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Perugia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 57%, Perugia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Brescia) and 43% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Perugia in 38%; Perugia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Brescia's recent matches and 52% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Brescia's recent games and 43% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Perugia tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Perugia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Perugia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Perugia 2-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.39 xG and Perugia 0.79 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against Perugia attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 51% | Draw 28% | Perugia 21%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Perugia 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Perugia's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.64 PPG, Perugia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.