Brescia 1-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Brescia take on Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Cagliari meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Cagliari have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cagliari are 1.40 PPG clear of Brescia in recent Serie B fixtures (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brescia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Cagliari winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brescia — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Cagliari — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 49% versus Cagliari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 32% | Cagliari 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.82 xG and Cagliari 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.710 / defence 1.181 | Cagliari attack 0.693 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 0.989. Brescia's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Brescia games / 27 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 32% | Draw 37% | Cagliari 31%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Cagliari 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Cagliari's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 40% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 32% | Draw 37% | Cagliari 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 32% | xG Brescia 0.82 / Cagliari 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.710 / def 1.181 | Cagliari attack 0.693 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.123 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cagliari xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Cagliari kick off?
Brescia vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Cagliari?
Brescia 1 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Brescia vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Cagliari part of?
Brescia vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 32% chance of winning, Cagliari a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Brescia and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Brescia and Cagliari in?
Brescia (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brescia's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.69x) against Brescia's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
37%
2.68
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.63
0.81
Cagliari xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 15.9 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.3%.
How many goals are Brescia and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Brescia and 0.81 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brescia come into this having played 65 games, going 21W 23D 21L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.05 PPG from 65 outings (15W 23D 27L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Brescia against 1.05 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Brescia's home form reads 12W 11D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.78 points per game from 32 outings (4W 13D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.97 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 21W 23D 21L in their last 65 games (1.32 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 23D 27L in their last 65 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Cagliari away?
Brescia's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.47 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Brescia 1-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Cagliari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Brescia and 41% for Cagliari.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 47% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Brescia's recent games and 41% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Cagliari tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Cagliari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Cagliari finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.82 xG and Cagliari 0.81 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.71 / defence 1.18 against Cagliari attack 0.69 / defence 1.03, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 32% | Draw 37% | Cagliari 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 32%, Cagliari 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.32 PPG, Cagliari 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.