Benevento 2-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ternana (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ternana are 0.70 PPG clear of Benevento in recent Serie B fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Benevento have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ternana in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Benevento lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Ternana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 41% versus Ternana 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 37% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.43 xG and Ternana 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.919 / defence 1.079 | Ternana attack 1.219 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.096. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ternana have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Benevento games / 46 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 25% | Ternana 38%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Ternana 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 60% | Ternana 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 25% | Ternana 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Benevento 1.43 / Ternana 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.919 / def 1.079 | Ternana attack 1.219 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Ternana (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Ternana xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Ternana kick off?
Benevento vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Ternana?
Benevento 2 - 3 Ternana.
Where is Benevento vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Ternana part of?
Benevento vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 37% chance of winning, Ternana a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Benevento and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ternana?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Benevento and Ternana in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Ternana (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benevento's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.22x) against Benevento's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
37%
2.69
25%
4.01
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.87
1.44
Ternana xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Benevento and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Benevento and 1.44 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento's recent record stands at 21W 11D 14L from 46 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 16L across 46 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Benevento against 1.52 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 11W 4D 7L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 8W 7D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.54 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Ternana in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 21W 11D 14L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Ternana have gone 20W 10D 16L in their last 46 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Ternana away?
Benevento's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.68 PPG; Ternana away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Benevento or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ternana in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Ternana have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Ternana 2-2 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Benevento, 82% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Benevento) and 59% (Ternana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Benevento's games and 82% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Benevento's matches and 59% of Ternana's.
Do Benevento and Ternana tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Ternana in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Benevento 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Benevento 2-3 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.43 xG and Ternana 1.44 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ternana outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Ternana attack 1.22 / defence 1.23, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 37% | Draw 25% | Ternana 38%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 37%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.61 PPG, Ternana 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.