Benevento 1-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Monday 25 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ternana (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Benevento against 1.70 for Ternana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Benevento lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 43% versus Ternana 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Ternana 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 2.10 xG and Ternana 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.371 / defence 1.029 | Ternana attack 1.068 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.061. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Benevento games / 35 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 57% | Draw 24% | Ternana 19%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Ternana 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Benevento (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 50% | Ternana 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 57% | Draw 24% | Ternana 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Benevento 2.10 / Ternana 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.371 / def 1.029 | Ternana attack 1.068 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Benevento (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ternana xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Ternana kick off?
Benevento vs Ternana kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Ternana?
Benevento 1 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Benevento vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Ternana part of?
Benevento vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 57% chance of winning, Ternana a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Benevento and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Benevento and Ternana in?
Benevento (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Ternana (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benevento's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.07x) against Benevento's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.15
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Benevento xG
Total xG
3.26
1.17
Ternana xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
2%
43.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Benevento and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Benevento and 1.17 for Ternana, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Ternana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento's recent record stands at 18W 9D 8L from 35 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 13L across 35 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 10W 4D 3L from 17 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 5W 7D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.54 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 63%.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Ternana in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Ternana have gone 13W 9D 13L in their last 35 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Ternana away?
Benevento's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.00 PPG; Ternana away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Benevento or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ternana in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Ternana have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Ternana 2-2 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 47%, Ternana 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Benevento) and 53% (Ternana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Benevento's games and 82% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Benevento's matches and 53% of Ternana's.
Do Benevento and Ternana tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Ternana in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Benevento 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Benevento 1-2 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 2.10 xG and Ternana 1.17 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Benevento fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ternana outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.37 / defence 1.03 against Ternana attack 1.07 / defence 1.43, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 57% | Draw 24% | Ternana 19%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Ternana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 40%, Ternana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Ternana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.