Benevento 1-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggina have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Benevento, 0.90 for Reggina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Benevento lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 43% versus Reggina 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 36% | Reggina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 0.93 xG and Reggina 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.738 / defence 1.296 | Reggina attack 1.173 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 0.975. Benevento's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Benevento games / 70 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 23% | Draw 27% | Reggina 50%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Reggina 2.00. Reggina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 40% | Reggina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 23% | Draw 27% | Reggina 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Benevento 0.93 / Reggina 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.738 / def 1.296 | Reggina attack 1.173 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.127 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Reggina (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Reggina xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Reggina kick off?
Benevento vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Reggina?
Benevento 1 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Benevento vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Reggina part of?
Benevento vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 23% chance of winning, Reggina a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Benevento and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Reggina?
Record (3 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 1 | Reggina 0W.
What form are Benevento and Reggina in?
Benevento (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Reggina (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.74) and Reggina's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (1.17x) against Benevento's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
23%
4.31
27%
3.70
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.41
1.48
Reggina xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
5%
18.96
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Benevento and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Benevento and 1.48 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento's recent record stands at 25W 19D 26L from 70 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 30L across 70 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Benevento against 1.37 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 13W 7D 14L from 34 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggina's away record stands at 11W 7D 16L across 34 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.06 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Current Season
Reggina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Reggina in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 25W 19D 26L in their last 70 games (1.34 PPG), while Reggina have gone 28W 12D 30L in their last 70 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Reggina away?
Benevento's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.35 PPG; Reggina away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Benevento or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Reggina in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benevento won 4-0 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Benevento
2
Draws
0
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Reggina have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Benevento 1-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Reggina?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 47%, Reggina 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Benevento) and 32% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 32% of games; Reggina in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Benevento's recent matches and 38% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Benevento's recent games and 32% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Reggina tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Reggina in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento and Reggina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 33, as Benevento and Reggina drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 0.93 xG and Reggina 1.48 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.74 / defence 1.30 against Reggina attack 1.17 / defence 1.11, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 23% | Draw 27% | Reggina 50%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 36%, Reggina 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggina's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.34 PPG, Reggina 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.