Benevento 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals as Benevento welcome Pisa to Stadio Benito Stirpe. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Benevento at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.50 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Benevento, 1 for Pisa and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 5–1 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 42% versus Pisa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 42% | Pisa 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.61 xG and Pisa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.233 / defence 1.158 | Pisa attack 0.823 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.077. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Benevento games / 38 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 50% | Draw 26% | Pisa 23%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 4.35. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 60% | Pisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 50% | Draw 26% | Pisa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Benevento 1.61 / Pisa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.233 / def 1.158 | Pisa attack 0.823 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Benevento (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pisa xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Pisa kick off?
Benevento vs Pisa kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Pisa?
Benevento 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Benevento vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Benevento vs Pisa part of?
Benevento vs Pisa is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 50% chance of winning, Pisa a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benevento and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Benevento and Pisa in?
Benevento (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.23) and Pisa's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.81
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.64
1.03
Pisa xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
5%
21.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Benevento and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Benevento and 1.03 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 18W 9D 11L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 18W 13D 7L from 38 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.66 PPG, Pisa on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 7W 5D 6L from 18 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.26 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Pisa in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Pisa in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Pisa have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Pisa away?
Benevento's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.72 PPG; Pisa away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Benevento or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Pisa in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Benevento won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benevento's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Benevento
1
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Pisa 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 50%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Benevento) and 28% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 28% of games; Pisa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benevento's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Benevento's recent games and 28% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Pisa tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Pisa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benevento edge out Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.61 xG and Pisa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.23 / defence 1.16 against Pisa attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 50% | Draw 26% | Pisa 23%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 42%, Pisa 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pisa's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.66 PPG, Pisa 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.