Benevento vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 3W 2D 2L across 7 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Padova have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.57 for Benevento, 1.30 for Padova — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Padova — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 57% versus Padova 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 43% | Padova 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.56 xG and Padova 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.034 / defence 1.073 | Padova attack 0.914 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Benevento games / 45 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 43% | Draw 28% | Padova 29%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Padova 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 80% | Padova 50% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 43% | Draw 28% | Padova 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Benevento 1.56 / Padova 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.034 / def 1.073 | Padova attack 0.914 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Benevento (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Padova xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Padova kick off?
Benevento vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Padova part of?
Benevento vs Padova is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 43% chance of winning, Padova a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Benevento and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Padova in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Padova (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.03) and Padova's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.91x) against Benevento's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.57
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.79
1.24
Padova xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
6%
16.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Benevento and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Benevento and 1.24 for Padova, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Padova — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Benevento's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Padova have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 0.86 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Padova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Padova in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Padova have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Padova away?
Benevento's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.33 PPG; Padova away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Benevento, 67% for Padova — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Benevento and 67% for Padova. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Padova in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Padova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benevento's games and 67% of Padova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Benevento's matches and 67% of Padova's.
Do Benevento and Padova tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Padova in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.