Bari 0-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Juve Stabia travel to Stadio San Nicola to take on Bari. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's home record at Stadio San Nicola: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juve Stabia are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Bari have won 0, Juve Stabia 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia trading profile (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Juve Stabia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 37% | Juve Stabia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.47 xG and Juve Stabia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.918 / defence 1.085 | Juve Stabia attack 0.889 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.048. Juve Stabia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Bari games / 57 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 47% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 25%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Juve Stabia 4.00. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Bari 70% | Juve Stabia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 47% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Bari 1.47 / Juve Stabia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.918 / def 1.085 | Juve Stabia attack 0.889 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Bari (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Juve Stabia xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Bari vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Bari 0 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Bari vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Juve Stabia part of?
Bari vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 47% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bari and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Juve Stabia?
Record (3 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Bari and Juve Stabia in?
Bari (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.92) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.57
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bari xG
Total xG
2.48
1.01
Juve Stabia xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
6%
17.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bari and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bari and 1.01 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Bari have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 13W 26D 18L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia's form line: 20W 21D 16L from 57 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.14 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (10W 13D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Bari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 12D 11L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.09 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 13W 26D 18L in their last 57 games (1.14 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 20W 21D 16L in their last 57 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Juve Stabia away?
Bari's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.59 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Bari or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bari's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bari
1
Draws
3
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Bari 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 67%, Juve Stabia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bari) and 52% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bari's games and 56% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bari's recent games and 52% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Bari 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Bari 0-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.47 xG and Juve Stabia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Juve Stabia attack 0.89 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 47% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 25%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Juve Stabia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Juve Stabia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.14 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.