Bari 0-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Frosinone make the trip to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to face Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Bari (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bari's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Frosinone's overall Serie B record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Frosinone are 0.60 PPG clear of Bari in recent Serie B fixtures (2.50 vs 1.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bari 0W, Frosinone 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Frosinone winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 50% versus Frosinone 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 43% | Frosinone 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.97 xG and Frosinone 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.066 / defence 1.150 | Frosinone attack 1.318 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 0.970. Frosinone's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Bari games / 66 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 24% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 47%. Fair-value odds: Bari 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Frosinone 2.13. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 50% | Frosinone 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 24% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bari 0.97 / Frosinone 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.066 / def 1.150 | Frosinone attack 1.318 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.165 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Frosinone xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Frosinone kick off?
Bari vs Frosinone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Frosinone?
Bari 0 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Bari vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Frosinone part of?
Bari vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 24% chance of winning, Frosinone a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bari and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Bari and Frosinone in?
Bari (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Frosinone (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bari's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.32x) against Bari's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
24%
4.22
29%
3.47
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Bari xG
Total xG
2.44
1.47
Frosinone xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
5%
18.36
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bari and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Bari and 1.47 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bari come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 10D 5L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 2.18 PPG from 28 outings (19W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Bari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bari's home form reads 5W 6D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.86 points per game from 14 outings (8W 2D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.71 scored and 0.64 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Frosinone in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 13W 10D 5L in their last 28 games (1.75 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 19W 4D 5L in their last 28 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.50 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Bari or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Frosinone in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Frosinone have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 0-3 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
1
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Frosinone have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Frosinone 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 57%, Frosinone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bari) and 43% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 36%; Bari have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Bari's recent matches and 50% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bari's recent games and 43% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Frosinone tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 29, as Bari and Frosinone drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.97 xG and Frosinone 1.47 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Frosinone landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Frosinone attack 1.32 / defence 0.78, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 24% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 47%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 43%, Frosinone 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.