Avellino 0-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Avellino vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Avellino host Juve Stabia at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Avellino — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avellino at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Juve Stabia's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Avellino's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Avellino, 1 for Juve Stabia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Avellino in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 58% versus Juve Stabia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 50% | Juve Stabia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.29 xG and Juve Stabia 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 0.917 / defence 1.393 | Juve Stabia attack 0.948 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.116. Data: 26 Avellino games / 64 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 32% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 41%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Juve Stabia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Avellino 70% | Juve Stabia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 32% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Avellino 1.29 / Juve Stabia 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 0.917 / def 1.393 | Juve Stabia attack 0.948 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Juve Stabia xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Avellino vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Juve Stabia?
Avellino 0 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Avellino vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Juve Stabia part of?
Avellino vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 32% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Avellino and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Avellino 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Avellino and Juve Stabia in?
Avellino (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Avellino's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Avellino's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.75
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.76
1.47
Juve Stabia xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
7%
13.43
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Avellino and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Avellino and 1.47 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Avellino have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 7W 8D 11L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia's form line: 9W 11D 6L from 26 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Avellino on 1.12 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Avellino have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 5D 5L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Avellino are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.19 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 9W 11D 6L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Juve Stabia away?
Avellino's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.38 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Avellino or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avellino
1
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Avellino have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Avellino 0-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 62%, Juve Stabia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Avellino and 62% for Juve Stabia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Avellino have failed to score in 31% of games; Juve Stabia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Avellino's games and 62% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avellino vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Avellino's matches and 62% of Juve Stabia's.
Do Avellino and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Avellino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 27, as Avellino and Juve Stabia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.29 xG and Juve Stabia 1.47 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Avellino fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Juve Stabia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.92 / defence 1.39 against Juve Stabia attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 32% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 41%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 50%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Avellino 1.12 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Avellino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.