Ascoli 1-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 3 as Ascoli welcome Benevento to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ascoli, 2 for Benevento and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.30 xG and Benevento 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.838 / defence 1.110 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.179. Data: 2 Ascoli games / 2 Benevento games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 31%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Ascoli 1.30 / Benevento 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.838 / def 1.110 | Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Benevento xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Benevento kick off?
Ascoli vs Benevento kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Benevento?
Ascoli 1 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Ascoli vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Benevento part of?
Ascoli vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 40% chance of winning, Benevento a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ascoli and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Benevento?
Record (5 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 2 | Benevento 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Benevento in?
Ascoli (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.36
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.42
1.11
Benevento xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.11 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Benevento in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Benevento in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ascoli's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ascoli
2
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Benevento?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Benevento have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Ascoli 1-0 Benevento.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ascoli's games and 100% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ascoli's recent games and 50% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Benevento 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Benevento 1-0 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.30 xG and Benevento 1.11 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benevento landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Benevento attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 40% | Draw 30% | Benevento 31%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 50%, Benevento 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Ascoli conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Benevento managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.