Venezia 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours Hellas Verona — this Venezia vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Venezia welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Serie A (matchday 22). Kick-off is Monday 27 January 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Venezia stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Venezia) versus 0.70 (Hellas Verona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Hellas Verona have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Venezia. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Venezia 1–2 Hellas Verona — a Hellas Verona win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Hellas Verona have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 58% versus Hellas Verona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 63% | Hellas Verona 58%). Note also that Hellas Verona surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.43 xG and Hellas Verona 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.809 / defence 1.050 | Hellas Verona attack 0.969 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.327. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.304 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Venezia's projected output up. Data: built from Venezia's last 21 games and Hellas Verona's last 59.
Result probabilities: Venezia 37% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 33%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.70 | Draw 3.37 | Hellas Verona 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Monday 27 January 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 37% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Venezia 1.43 / Hellas Verona 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.809 / def 1.050 | Hellas Verona attack 0.969 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Venezia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Hellas Verona xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Venezia vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 27 January 2025 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Venezia 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Venezia vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Hellas Verona part of?
Venezia vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 22) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 37% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Venezia and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Venezia vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.81) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 21 games and Hellas Verona's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.37
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.78
1.35
Hellas Verona xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Venezia and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Venezia and 1.35 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 25W 12D 22L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Hellas Verona's form line: 15W 12D 32L from 59 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Venue Form
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 29 home games (17W 4D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 6W 5D 18L from their last 29 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.05 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
Venezia (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Venezia vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 12D 22L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 15W 12D 32L in their last 59 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Hellas Verona away?
Venezia's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.90 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Venezia's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Venezia
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Hellas Verona?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 0, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Venezia and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2025: Venezia 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 66%, Hellas Verona 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Venezia) and 48% (Hellas Verona). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Hellas Verona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Venezia's games and 52% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Venezia and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Venezia's matches and 48% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Venezia and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Venezia's recent matches and 66% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia and Hellas Verona finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.43 xG and Hellas Verona 1.35 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Hellas Verona attack 0.97 / defence 1.30, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 37% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 33%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 63%, Hellas Verona 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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