Venezia vs Frosinone – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Frosinone at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Frosinone travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 January 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Frosinone have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Frosinone have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Frosinone are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Venezia have won 2, Frosinone 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Frosinone 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | Frosinone 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.19 xG and Frosinone 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.720 / defence 1.303 | Frosinone attack 0.865 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Venezia's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Venezia games / 7 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 32% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 42%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Frosinone 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 30% | Frosinone 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 32% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Venezia 1.19 / Frosinone 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.720 / def 1.303 | Frosinone attack 0.865 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Frosinone xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Frosinone kick off?
Venezia vs Frosinone is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 January 2027 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Where is Venezia vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Frosinone part of?
Venezia vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 32% chance of winning, Frosinone a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Venezia and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Frosinone?
Record (5 meetings): Venezia 2W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 3W.
What form are Venezia and Frosinone in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Frosinone (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.72x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
32%
3.13
26%
3.80
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.59
1.40
Frosinone xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.68
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Venezia and 1.40 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 25W 10D 10L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Frosinone's form line: 27W 13D 5L from 45 games, 2.09 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.89 PPG, Frosinone on 2.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Venezia have posted 2.32 PPG from 22 outings (17W 0D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Frosinone have gone 12W 8D 2L from 22 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.98 scored and 0.96 conceded. Venezia's scoring rate against Frosinone's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Frosinone in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Frosinone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 10D 10L in their last 45 games (1.89 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 27W 13D 5L in their last 45 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Frosinone away?
Venezia's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.32 PPG; Frosinone away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Venezia or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Frosinone in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2023, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Venezia
0
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Frosinone?
From 5 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Frosinone have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Frosinone 3-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 36%, Frosinone 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 54% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Frosinone in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Venezia's recent matches and 59% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Venezia's recent games and 54% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Frosinone tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.