Venezia vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AS Roma are 1.60 PPG clear of Venezia in recent Serie A fixtures (2.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus AS Roma 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | AS Roma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.71 xG and AS Roma 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.736 / defence 1.238 | AS Roma attack 1.124 / defence 0.662. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.321. Venezia's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.662 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Venezia games / 45 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 14% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 64%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | AS Roma 1.56. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 30% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 14% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 43% | xG Venezia 0.71 / AS Roma 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.736 / def 1.238 | AS Roma attack 1.124 / def 0.662 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.84
AS Roma xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs AS Roma kick off?
Venezia vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Wednesday 6 January 2027 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Where is Venezia vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs AS Roma part of?
Venezia vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 14% chance of winning, AS Roma a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Venezia and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and AS Roma?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Venezia and AS Roma in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.74) and AS Roma's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.12x) against Venezia's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
14%
7.25
22%
4.57
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.55
1.84
AS Roma xG
7.25
14%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
16%
6.29
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
2%
45.58
32%
3.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Venezia and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Venezia and 1.84 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 25W 10D 10L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma's form line: 28W 6D 11L from 45 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Venezia against 2.00 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Venezia have posted 2.32 PPG from 22 outings (17W 0D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 2D 8L from 22 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.67 scored and 0.76 conceded. Venezia's scoring rate against AS Roma's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; AS Roma in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 10D 10L in their last 45 games (1.89 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 28W 6D 11L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or AS Roma away?
Venezia's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.32 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Venezia or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AS Roma in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, AS Roma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Venezia 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 36%, AS Roma 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 41% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; AS Roma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Venezia's recent matches and 36% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Venezia's recent games and 41% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and AS Roma tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.