Udinese 3-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Venezia travel to Dacia Arena to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.73 xG and Venezia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.031 / defence 1.200 | Venezia attack 0.657 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.612. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Udinese games / 1 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Udinese 48% | Draw 24% | Venezia 28%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Venezia 3.57. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 48% | Draw 24% | Venezia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Udinese 1.73 / Venezia 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.031 / def 1.200 | Venezia attack 0.657 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.612 • Poisson stance: Udinese (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Venezia xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Venezia kick off?
Udinese vs Venezia kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Venezia?
Udinese 3 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Udinese vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Venezia part of?
Udinese vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 48% chance of winning, Venezia a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Udinese and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Udinese and Venezia in?
Udinese (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Venezia (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.03) and Venezia's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.24
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.00
1.27
Venezia xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
5%
20.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Udinese and 1.27 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Udinese are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Venezia in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Venezia in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Venezia have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Udinese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Udinese
0
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Udinese 3-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Venezia?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Udinese's recent matches and 0% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Udinese's recent games and 0% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Venezia tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Venezia in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Venezia 3-0 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.73 xG and Venezia 1.27 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.03 / defence 1.20 against Venezia attack 0.66 / defence 1.20, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 48% | Draw 24% | Venezia 28%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 100%, Venezia 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.