Udinese 2-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Udinese (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Sampdoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Dacia Arena to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Monday 8 May 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Udinese's home record at Dacia Arena: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Udinese. A 0.70 PPG lead over Sampdoria (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Udinese 2W, Sampdoria 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 59% versus Sampdoria 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 55% | Sampdoria 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 2.47 xG and Sampdoria 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.269 / defence 1.013 | Sampdoria attack 0.756 / defence 1.530. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.151. Udinese carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.530 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Udinese games / 71 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 72% | Draw 17% | Sampdoria 11%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Sampdoria 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 90% | Sampdoria 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 72% | Draw 17% | Sampdoria 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 54% | xG Udinese 2.47 / Sampdoria 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.269 / def 1.013 | Sampdoria attack 0.756 / def 1.530 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Udinese (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sampdoria xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Sampdoria kick off?
Udinese vs Sampdoria kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Udinese 2 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Udinese vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Sampdoria part of?
Udinese vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 72% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Udinese and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Sampdoria?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 2W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Udinese and Sampdoria in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Udinese's attack at 1.27x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 2.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.76x) against Udinese's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.92
11%
8.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.35
0.88
Sampdoria xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.92
17%
Draw
8.94
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
8%
11.83
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
1%
105.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Udinese and 0.88 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 27D 23L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 13W 14D 44L from 71 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Udinese are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.40 PPG from 35 outings (11W 16D 8L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 6W 6D 23L from 35 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.93 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 21W 27D 23L in their last 71 games (1.27 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 13W 14D 44L in their last 71 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Sampdoria away?
Udinese's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.40 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Udinese have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Udinese
1
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Sampdoria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Udinese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Sampdoria?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 71%, Sampdoria 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Udinese) and 51% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Udinese's games and 40% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Udinese's recent games and 51% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Sampdoria 2-0 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 2.47 xG and Sampdoria 0.88 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.27 / defence 1.01 against Sampdoria attack 0.76 / defence 1.53, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 72% | Draw 17% | Sampdoria 11%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 55%, Sampdoria 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Sampdoria's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.