Udinese vs Juventus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Juventus.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Udinese and Juventus meet at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 May 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Juventus have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Juventus, who have claimed 8 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Juventus winning.
It is worth noting that Juventus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Juventus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Juventus 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.92 xG and Juventus 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.942 / defence 0.892 | Juventus attack 0.993 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Udinese games / 40 Juventus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 31% | Juventus 39%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Juventus 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 20% | Juventus 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 31% | Juventus 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Udinese 0.92 / Juventus 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.942 / def 0.892 | Juventus attack 0.993 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Juventus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Juventus xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Juventus kick off?
Udinese vs Juventus is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Juventus part of?
Udinese vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 30% chance of winning, Juventus a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Udinese and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Juventus?
Record (10 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 1 | Juventus 8W.
What form are Udinese and Juventus in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Juventus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.94) and Juventus's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.99x) against Udinese's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
30%
3.29
31%
3.27
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.02
1.09
Juventus xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.5 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Udinese and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Udinese and 1.09 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese's recent record stands at 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 7L across 40 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 6W 6D 8L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 10W 5D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.60 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Juventus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Juventus in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Juventus have gone 21W 12D 7L in their last 40 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.20 PPG; Juventus away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Udinese or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Juventus in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
1
Draws
8
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Juventus have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 40%, Juventus 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Udinese and 35% for Juventus.
On the defensive side: Juventus in 45%; Udinese have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Udinese's recent matches and 40% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Udinese's recent games and 35% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Juventus tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Juventus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.