Udinese 0-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bluenergy Stadium plays host to Udinese versus Hellas Verona in Serie A (matchday 29). Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Udinese (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Udinese have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hellas Verona have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Hellas Verona have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Udinese. A 0.80 PPG lead over Hellas Verona (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Hellas Verona edge it 2 wins to 1, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2025, ended Udinese 0–0 Hellas Verona — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 58% versus Hellas Verona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 42% | Hellas Verona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.60 xG and Hellas Verona 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.053 / defence 0.965 | Hellas Verona attack 0.834 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.244. Data: built from Udinese's last 66 games and Hellas Verona's last 66.
Result probabilities: Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 22%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.03 | Draw 3.44 | Hellas Verona 4.61. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Udinese 1.60 / Hellas Verona 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.053 / def 0.965 | Hellas Verona attack 0.834 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Udinese (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hellas Verona xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Udinese 0 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Udinese vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Hellas Verona part of?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 49% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Udinese and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Udinese vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.83x) against Udinese's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 66 games and Hellas Verona's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.44
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.60
1.00
Hellas Verona xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
4%
22.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Udinese and 1.00 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 66 games, going 17W 26D 23L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.97 PPG from 66 outings (17W 13D 36L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Udinese against 0.97 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 8W 13D 12L across their last 33 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 33 away games (7W 6D 20L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.00 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Udinese (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Udinese vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 17W 26D 23L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 17W 13D 36L in their last 66 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Hellas Verona away?
Udinese's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.12 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 26 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hellas Verona won Hellas Verona 4-0 Udinese on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 4D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
5
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 2, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2026: Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 58%, Hellas Verona 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Udinese) and 42% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Udinese's recent matches and 48% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Udinese and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Udinese's recent games and 42% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Udinese's recent matches and 64% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.60 xG and Hellas Verona 1.00 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Hellas Verona attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 22%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hellas Verona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, Hellas Verona 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.17 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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