Udinese 1-0 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Como at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 1W 5D 4L at Bluenergy Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bluenergy Stadium this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Como have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Como have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Como's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Como's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Udinese's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Como in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 60% versus Como 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 38% | Como 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.73 xG and Como 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.022 / defence 1.031 | Como attack 0.758 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.145. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Udinese games / 2 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 28% | Como 17%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Como 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Como (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 80% | Como 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Como | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 28% | Como 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Udinese 1.73 / Como 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.022 / def 1.031 | Como attack 0.758 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Udinese (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Como xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Como kick off?
Udinese vs Como kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Como?
Udinese 1 - 0 Como.
Where is Udinese vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Como part of?
Udinese vs Como is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 55% chance of winning, Como a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Como?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Udinese and Como in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Como (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Udinese's attack at 1.02x the league average against Como's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
55%
1.82
28%
3.53
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.63
0.90
Como xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
33.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Udinese and 0.90 for Como, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Como?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 7W 20D 13L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Como's form line: 21W 11D 8L from 40 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Como, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 0.85 PPG from 20 outings (2W 11D 7L).
On the road, Como have gone 9W 6D 5L from 20 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.48 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Como
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Como in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 7W 20D 13L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Como have gone 21W 11D 8L in their last 40 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.85 PPG; Como away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Udinese or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Como in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Como runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Como won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Como specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Udinese
1
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Como have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Como last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Udinese 0-0 Como.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 70%, Como 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 50% (Como).
On the defensive side: Como in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Udinese's games and 50% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Como tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Como in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Como 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Como 1-0 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.73 xG and Como 0.90 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Como landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Como attack 0.76 / defence 1.25, drawn from 40/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 55% | Draw 28% | Como 17%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 38%, Como 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Como's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.