Udinese 0-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bologna at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Bologna have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 0.70 PPG clear of Udinese in recent Serie A fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 1W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 49% | Bologna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.29 xG and Bologna 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.050 / defence 1.154 | Bologna attack 1.225 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.035. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Udinese games / 49 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 32% | Draw 29% | Bologna 40%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Bologna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 50% | Bologna 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 32% | Draw 29% | Bologna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Udinese 1.29 / Bologna 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.050 / def 1.154 | Bologna attack 1.225 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Bologna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Bologna xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Bologna kick off?
Udinese vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Udinese 0 - 3 Bologna.
Where is Udinese vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Bologna part of?
Udinese vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 32% chance of winning, Bologna a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Udinese and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
Record (8 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 5 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Udinese and Bologna in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Udinese's attack at 1.05x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.23x) against Udinese's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
32%
3.17
29%
3.46
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.75
1.46
Bologna xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Udinese and 1.46 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 11D 22L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.69 PPG from 49 outings (22W 17D 10L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 9W 5D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.38 points per game from 24 outings (8W 9D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.53 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Bologna in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while Bologna have gone 22W 17D 10L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.33 PPG; Bologna away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Udinese or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bologna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
5
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 46%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 54% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Udinese have failed to score in 29% of games; Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Udinese's recent matches and 54% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 54% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Bologna tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bologna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Udinese 0-3 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.29 xG and Bologna 1.46 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bologna outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Bologna attack 1.23 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 32% | Draw 29% | Bologna 40%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 49%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.