Torino 1-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Torino and Inter meet at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
Inter have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Inter are 0.60 PPG clear of Torino in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Torino lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Inter winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Inter half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 52% versus Inter 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 44% | Inter 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.00 xG and Inter 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.086 / defence 1.120 | Inter attack 0.955 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.329. Data: 27 Torino games / 27 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 24% | Draw 32% | Inter 44%. Fair-value odds: Torino 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Inter 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Torino 70% | Inter 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 24% | Draw 32% | Inter 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Torino 1.00 / Inter 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.086 / def 1.120 | Inter attack 0.955 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Inter (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Inter xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Inter kick off?
Torino vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Inter?
Torino 1 - 1 Inter.
Where is Torino vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Inter part of?
Torino vs Inter is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 24% chance of winning, Inter a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Torino and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are Torino and Inter in?
Torino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Inter (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Torino's attack rating (1.09) and Inter's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inter's attack (0.95x) against Torino's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
24%
4.19
32%
3.11
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Torino xG
Total xG
2.42
1.42
Inter xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
6%
17.34
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Torino and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Torino and 1.42 for Inter, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Torino come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 7D 11L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.15 PPG from 27 outings (17W 7D 3L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Torino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Torino's home form reads 7W 3D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Torino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Inter have taken 2.00 points per game from 13 outings (7W 5D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.22 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Inter in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Inter have gone 17W 7D 3L in their last 27 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.85 PPG; Inter away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Torino or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Inter in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 5-0 on 25 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Torino
2
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 0, Inter have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Torino 2-2 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 62%, Inter 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Torino and 54% for Inter. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Inter in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Torino's games and 54% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torino vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Torino's matches and 54% of Inter's.
Do Torino and Inter tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Inter in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino and Inter share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 29, as Torino and Inter drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.00 xG and Inter 1.42 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 1.09 / defence 1.12 against Inter attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 24% | Draw 32% | Inter 44%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 44%, Inter 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Torino (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.