Torino 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Torino have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season.
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fiorentina have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Torino 1.50 PPG, Fiorentina 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Torino have won 2, Fiorentina 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Torino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 51% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 38% | Fiorentina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.99 xG and Fiorentina 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.764 / defence 1.097 | Fiorentina attack 1.114 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.129. Torino's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Torino games / 73 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 26% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Fiorentina 2.22. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Torino 50% | Fiorentina 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 26% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Torino 0.99 / Fiorentina 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.764 / def 1.097 | Fiorentina attack 1.114 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Fiorentina kick off?
Torino vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Fiorentina?
Torino 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Torino vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Fiorentina part of?
Torino vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 26% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Torino and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Torino 2W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Torino and Fiorentina in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.76x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
26%
3.78
28%
3.53
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Torino xG
Total xG
2.37
1.38
Fiorentina xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
7%
15.04
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Torino and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Torino and 1.38 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Torino have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 26W 21D 26L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 32W 15D 26L from 73 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.36 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.39 PPG from 36 outings (13W 11D 12L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 11W 7D 18L from 36 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.45 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 26W 21D 26L in their last 73 games (1.36 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 32W 15D 26L in their last 73 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Fiorentina away?
Torino's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.39 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jan 2022, when Torino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Torino's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Torino
5
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Fiorentina have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fiorentina 2-2 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 50%, Fiorentina 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Torino) and 47% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Torino have failed to score in 28% of games; Fiorentina in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Torino's recent matches and 56% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Torino's recent games and 47% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino and Fiorentina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.99 xG and Fiorentina 1.38 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.76 / defence 1.10 against Fiorentina attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 26% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 38%, Fiorentina 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.36 PPG, Fiorentina 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.