Spezia 2-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sassuolo at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 2W 1D 4L this season (7 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sassuolo — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sassuolo are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 60% and Sassuolo 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Spezia 67% | Sassuolo 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.25 xG and Sassuolo 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.737 / defence 1.099 | Sassuolo attack 1.151 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.421. Spezia's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Spezia games / 15 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 50%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Sassuolo 2.00. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 57% | Sassuolo 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Spezia 1.25 / Sassuolo 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.737 / def 1.099 | Sassuolo attack 1.151 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Sassuolo xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Sassuolo kick off?
Spezia vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sassuolo?
Spezia 2 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Spezia vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sassuolo part of?
Spezia vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 27% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Spezia and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Sassuolo in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spezia's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
27%
3.76
23%
4.32
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Spezia xG
Total xG
3.05
1.80
Sassuolo xG
3.76
27%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
4%
22.70
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Spezia and 1.80 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 3W 2D 10L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo's form line: 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sassuolo are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.60 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sassuolo in 80%.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 3W 2D 10L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.00 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Sassuolo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Sassuolo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
3
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Sassuolo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Spezia 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spezia at 57%, Sassuolo at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Spezia and 100% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Spezia's games and 100% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Spezia's matches and 100% of Sassuolo's.
Do Spezia and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Sassuolo finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.25 xG and Sassuolo 1.80 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against Sassuolo attack 1.15 / defence 1.36, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 27% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 50%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 67%, Sassuolo 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.