Sassuolo 0-5 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Inter at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's away record: 9W 0D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Sassuolo, 4 for Inter and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Inter in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 52% versus Inter 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 49% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 0.67 xG and Inter 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.798 / defence 1.172 | Inter attack 1.222 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.171. Sassuolo's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inter's defence strength of 0.680 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Sassuolo games / 61 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 15% | Draw 24% | Inter 62%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | Inter 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Inter (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 50% | Inter 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 15% | Draw 24% | Inter 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 40% | xG Sassuolo 0.67 / Inter 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.798 / def 1.172 | Inter attack 1.222 / def 0.680 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Inter (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Inter xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Inter kick off?
Sassuolo vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Inter?
Sassuolo 0 - 5 Inter.
Where is Sassuolo vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Inter part of?
Sassuolo vs Inter is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 15% chance of winning, Inter a 62% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sassuolo and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Inter?
Record (7 meetings): Sassuolo 3W | Draws 0 | Inter 4W.
What form are Sassuolo and Inter in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Inter (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (0.80) and Inter's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
15%
6.89
24%
4.17
62%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.35
1.68
Inter xG
6.89
15%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.63
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
3%
36.84
31%
3.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 16.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.68 for Inter, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 33W 12D 16L from 61 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 42W 10D 9L across 61 games — 2.23 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sassuolo heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 18W 4D 8L from 30 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter's away record stands at 20W 5D 5L across 30 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.15 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Inter in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 33W 12D 16L in their last 61 games (1.82 PPG), while Inter have gone 42W 10D 9L in their last 61 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.93 PPG; Inter away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Inter in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and Inter runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inter go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2026, when Inter won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sassuolo
0
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 3, Inter have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sassuolo 0-5 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 47%, Inter 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sassuolo) and 43% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Inter in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 33% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sassuolo's recent games and 43% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Inter tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Inter in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Sassuolo 0-5 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 0.67 xG and Inter 1.68 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Inter outscored their 1.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Inter attack 1.22 / defence 0.68, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 15% | Draw 24% | Inter 62%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 49%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.