Sassuolo vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Genoa travel to to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 7W 1D 2L at — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sassuolo are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Genoa — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Sassuolo) versus 0.50 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Genoa, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Sassuolo.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Genoa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Genoa have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Genoa trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 60% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 60% | Genoa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.66 xG and Genoa 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.159 / defence 1.023 | Genoa attack 0.724 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Data: 45 Sassuolo games / 45 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 55% | Draw 24% | Genoa 21%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Genoa 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sassuolo (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 70% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 55% | Draw 24% | Genoa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Sassuolo 1.66 / Genoa 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.159 / def 1.023 | Genoa attack 0.724 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Genoa xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Genoa kick off?
Sassuolo vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Genoa part of?
Sassuolo vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 55% chance of winning, Genoa a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sassuolo and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Record (6 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 2 | Genoa 4W.
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Genoa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.09
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.57
0.92
Genoa xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.92 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 9D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.00 PPG from 45 outings (11W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.27 PPG, Genoa on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sassuolo's home form reads 11W 3D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (4W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while Genoa have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Genoa away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.64 PPG; Genoa away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 54%, Genoa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sassuolo) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo have failed to score in 27% of games; Genoa in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 54% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Sassuolo's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Genoa tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Genoa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.