Sassuolo 3-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sassuolo at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Sassuolo versus Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Monday 6 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sassuolo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 3W 2D 5L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cremonese (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sassuolo's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sassuolo, 0 for Cremonese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 66% and Cremonese 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 69% | Cremonese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.54 xG and Cremonese 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.896 / defence 1.059 | Cremonese attack 0.854 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.130. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Sassuolo games / 24 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 49% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 25%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Cremonese 4.00. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 50% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 49% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Sassuolo 1.54 / Cremonese 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.896 / def 1.059 | Cremonese attack 0.854 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Cremonese xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Cremonese kick off?
Sassuolo vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 6 March 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Sassuolo 3 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Sassuolo vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Cremonese part of?
Sassuolo vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 49% chance of winning, Cremonese a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sassuolo and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Sassuolo and Cremonese in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Cremonese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.90x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.85x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.92
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.56
1.02
Cremonese xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.02 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 17D 25L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 21W 18D 23L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.31 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.27 PPG from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 9W 9D 12L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 20W 17D 25L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Cremonese away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.27 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 1-4 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Sassuolo 1-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 63%, Cremonese 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Sassuolo) and 53% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sassuolo's games and 60% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Sassuolo's matches and 53% of Cremonese's.
Do Sassuolo and Cremonese tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Cremonese 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Cremonese 3-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.54 xG and Cremonese 1.02 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sassuolo beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cremonese outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Cremonese attack 0.85 / defence 1.35, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 49% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 25%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 69%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.24 PPG, Cremonese 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.