Sassuolo vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to to face Sassuolo in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 March 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 7W 0D 3L at — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sassuolo are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Bologna have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Sassuolo's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bologna have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 55% versus Bologna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 58% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.29 xG and Bologna 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.153 / defence 1.012 | Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Sassuolo games / 40 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 39% | Draw 27% | Bologna 33%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 50% | Bologna 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 39% | Draw 27% | Bologna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Sassuolo 1.29 / Bologna 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.153 / def 1.012 | Bologna attack 0.938 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bologna xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Bologna kick off?
Sassuolo vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 March 2027.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Bologna part of?
Sassuolo vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 39% chance of winning, Bologna a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sassuolo and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Record (8 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 3 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 1.15x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.94x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.68
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.46
1.17
Bologna xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.17 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sassuolo come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 7D 18L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.40 PPG from 40 outings (16W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.40 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sassuolo's home form reads 10W 2D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.23 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.60 PPG; Bologna away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 50%, Bologna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sassuolo) and 50% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sassuolo have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 55% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sassuolo's matches and 50% of Bologna's.
Do Sassuolo and Bologna tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Bologna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.