Sampdoria 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 home games — 0.89 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sampdoria at 1.20 PPG versus Venezia's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Venezia trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 65% versus Venezia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 82% | Venezia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.54 xG and Venezia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.925 / defence 1.422 | Venezia attack 0.503 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.477. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Sampdoria games / 17 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 49% | Draw 26% | Venezia 26%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Venezia 3.85. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 78% | Venezia 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 49% | Draw 26% | Venezia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Sampdoria 1.54 / Venezia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.925 / def 1.422 | Venezia attack 0.503 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Venezia xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Venezia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Venezia kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Sampdoria 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Venezia part of?
Sampdoria vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 49% chance of winning, Venezia a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sampdoria and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Venezia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Venezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.92
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.59
1.05
Venezia xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.05 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 3D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.06 PPG, Venezia on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sampdoria's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.94 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Venezia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Venezia have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Venezia away?
Sampdoria's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.89 PPG; Venezia away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sampdoria's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
2
Draws
3
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Venezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Sampdoria 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 78%, Venezia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Sampdoria and 44% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Sampdoria's games and 33% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Sampdoria's matches and 44% of Venezia's.
Do Sampdoria and Venezia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Venezia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 18, as Sampdoria and Venezia drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.54 xG and Venezia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.93 / defence 1.42 against Venezia attack 0.50 / defence 1.34, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 49% | Draw 26% | Venezia 26%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 82%, Venezia 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.06 PPG, Venezia 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.