Sampdoria 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 35 as Sampdoria welcome Genoa to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Genoa have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 1.10 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 1, Genoa 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Sampdoria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Genoa in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 56% versus Genoa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 62% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.31 xG and Genoa 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.925 / defence 1.328 | Genoa attack 0.507 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.299. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Sampdoria games / 34 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 46% | Draw 30% | Genoa 24%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Genoa 4.17. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 70% | Genoa 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 46% | Draw 30% | Genoa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Sampdoria 1.31 / Genoa 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.925 / def 1.328 | Genoa attack 0.507 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Genoa xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Genoa kick off?
Sampdoria vs Genoa kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Genoa?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Sampdoria vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Genoa part of?
Sampdoria vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 46% chance of winning, Genoa a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sampdoria and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Genoa in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.93x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.29
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.18
0.87
Genoa xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.87 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 8W 6D 20L from 34 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 3W 16D 15L across 34 games — 0.74 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 0.88 PPG, Genoa on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 4W 3D 10L from 17 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 1W 8D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.74 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Genoa in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 8W 6D 20L in their last 34 games (0.88 PPG), while Genoa have gone 3W 16D 15L in their last 34 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Genoa away?
Sampdoria's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.88 PPG; Genoa away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Genoa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sampdoria
0
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 2, Genoa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Sampdoria 1-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Genoa?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 71%, Genoa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Sampdoria) and 41% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sampdoria's games and 47% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Sampdoria's matches and 41% of Genoa's.
Do Sampdoria and Genoa tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Genoa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.31 xG and Genoa 0.87 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genoa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.93 / defence 1.33 against Genoa attack 0.51 / defence 1.29, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 46% | Draw 30% | Genoa 24%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 62%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.88 PPG, Genoa 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.