Salernitana 3-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadio Arechi, Salernitana have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Udinese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Salernitana, 1 for Udinese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 55% versus Udinese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 57% | Udinese 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.66 xG and Udinese 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 1.127 / defence 1.028 | Udinese attack 0.638 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.132. Data: 74 Salernitana games / 74 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 59% | Draw 25% | Udinese 16%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Salernitana (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salernitana at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 40% | Udinese 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 59% | Draw 25% | Udinese 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Salernitana 1.66 / Udinese 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 1.127 / def 1.028 | Udinese attack 0.638 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Udinese xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Udinese kick off?
Salernitana vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Udinese?
Salernitana 3 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Salernitana vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Udinese part of?
Salernitana vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 59% chance of winning, Udinese a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Salernitana and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Udinese?
Record (3 meetings): Salernitana 1W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Udinese in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 1.13x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.64x) against Salernitana's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
59%
1.70
25%
3.99
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.40
0.74
Udinese xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
3%
32.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Salernitana and 0.74 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Salernitana's recent record stands at 15W 25D 34L from 74 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 22W 27D 25L across 74 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Salernitana against 1.26 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 9W 12D 16L from 37 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 10W 11D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Salernitana are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Udinese in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 15W 25D 34L in their last 74 games (0.95 PPG), while Udinese have gone 22W 27D 25L in their last 74 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.05 PPG; Udinese away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 22 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salernitana
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Udinese?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 2, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Udinese 1-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Udinese?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 49%, Udinese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Salernitana) and 51% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 35% of games; Udinese in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Salernitana's recent matches and 46% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Salernitana's matches and 51% of Udinese's.
Do Salernitana and Udinese tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Udinese in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salernitana edge out Udinese 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Udinese 3-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.66 xG and Udinese 0.74 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.13 / defence 1.03 against Udinese attack 0.64 / defence 1.10, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 59% | Draw 25% | Udinese 16%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 57%, Udinese 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.95 PPG, Udinese 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salernitana win broke the near-deadlock. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.