Salernitana 1-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Salernitana at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salernitana host Spezia at Stadio Arechi in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salernitana have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Arechi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spezia — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salernitana at 1.00 PPG versus Spezia's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Salernitana have won 0, Spezia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Salernitana in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Spezia in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 52% versus Spezia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 58% | Spezia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.90 xG and Spezia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 1.079 / defence 1.150 | Spezia attack 0.624 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.160. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Salernitana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Salernitana games / 48 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 61% | Draw 25% | Spezia 14%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Spezia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Salernitana (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salernitana are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 60% | Spezia 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 61% | Draw 25% | Spezia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Salernitana 1.90 / Spezia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 1.079 / def 1.150 | Spezia attack 0.624 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Spezia xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Spezia kick off?
Salernitana vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Spezia?
Salernitana 1 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Salernitana vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Spezia part of?
Salernitana vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 61% chance of winning, Spezia a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Salernitana and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Spezia?
Record (2 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 1 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Spezia in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Spezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (1.08) and Spezia's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.00
14%
7.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.73
0.83
Spezia xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
7.09
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
47.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Salernitana and 0.83 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Spezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salernitana come into this having played 48 games, going 9W 14D 25L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.94 PPG from 48 outings (12W 9D 27L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salernitana on 0.85 PPG, Spezia on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salernitana's home form reads 5W 7D 12L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.75 points per game from 24 outings (5W 3D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.04 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Spezia in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 9W 14D 25L in their last 48 games (0.85 PPG), while Spezia have gone 12W 9D 27L in their last 48 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Spezia away?
Salernitana's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.92 PPG; Spezia away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Spezia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spezia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Salernitana's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Salernitana
2
Draws
3
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Spezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Spezia 2-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 50%, Spezia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Salernitana and 62% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 42% of games; Spezia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Salernitana's recent matches and 46% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Salernitana's matches and 62% of Spezia's.
Do Salernitana and Spezia tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Spezia in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salernitana edge out Spezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Spezia 1-0 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.90 xG and Spezia 0.83 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salernitana fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.08 / defence 1.15 against Spezia attack 0.62 / defence 1.28, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 61% | Draw 25% | Spezia 14%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 58%, Spezia 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.85 PPG, Spezia 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salernitana win broke the near-deadlock. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.