Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fiorentina (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Salernitana face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salernitana and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Arechi in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Salernitana at Stadio Arechi this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fiorentina (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Fiorentina are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Salernitana, 3 for Fiorentina and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Salernitana — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 58% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 61% | Fiorentina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.06 xG and Fiorentina 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.834 / defence 1.396 | Fiorentina attack 0.802 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.183. Data: 70 Salernitana games / 69 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 29% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 43%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Fiorentina 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 80% | Fiorentina 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 29% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Salernitana 1.06 / Fiorentina 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.834 / def 1.396 | Fiorentina attack 0.802 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Fiorentina kick off?
Salernitana vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Salernitana 0 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Salernitana vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Fiorentina part of?
Salernitana vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 29% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Salernitana and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Fiorentina?
Record (5 meetings): Salernitana 1W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 3W.
What form are Salernitana and Fiorentina in?
Salernitana (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.83x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.80x) against Salernitana's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 70/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
29%
3.39
28%
3.57
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.38
1.32
Fiorentina xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.32 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 11W 24D 34L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 27W 19D 23L from 69 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Fiorentina are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 1.03 PPG from 34 outings (8W 11D 15L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 10W 9D 15L from 34 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Salernitana are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.39 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 11W 24D 34L in their last 69 games (0.83 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 27W 19D 23L in their last 69 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.03 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Fiorentina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 4-0 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Fiorentina?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Fiorentina have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 62%, Fiorentina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Salernitana) and 32% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Salernitana's recent matches and 44% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Salernitana's recent games and 32% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Salernitana 0-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.06 xG and Fiorentina 1.32 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salernitana fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.83 / defence 1.40 against Fiorentina attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 29% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 43%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 61%, Fiorentina 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.