Pisa 0-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 27 as Pisa welcome Bologna to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bologna have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pisa, 1 for Bologna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bologna trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Bologna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Bologna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.83 xG and Bologna 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.596 / defence 1.207 | Bologna attack 1.256 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.197. Pisa's attack strength of 0.596 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Pisa games / 64 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 17% | Draw 23% | Bologna 61%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | Bologna 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 30% | Bologna 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Monday 2 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 17% | Draw 23% | Bologna 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Pisa 0.83 / Bologna 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.596 / def 1.207 | Bologna attack 1.256 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Bologna (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Bologna xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Bologna kick off?
Pisa vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 2 March 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Bologna?
Pisa 0 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Pisa vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Bologna part of?
Pisa vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 17% chance of winning, Bologna a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pisa and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 0 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Pisa and Bologna in?
Pisa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.60x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
17%
6.01
23%
4.43
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.64
1.82
Bologna xG
6.01
17%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
3%
36.92
27%
3.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.9 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Pisa and 1.82 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 23W 20D 21L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 26W 20D 18L from 64 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.39 PPG, Bologna on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (14W 8D 10L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 11W 11D 10L from 32 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.44 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Bologna in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 20D 21L in their last 64 games (1.39 PPG), while Bologna have gone 26W 20D 18L in their last 64 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Bologna away?
Pisa's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.56 PPG; Bologna away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
0
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Bologna?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Bologna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Pisa 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 47%, Bologna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pisa) and 59% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Pisa have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pisa's recent matches and 59% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pisa's recent games and 59% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Bologna tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Bologna in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Pisa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.83 xG and Bologna 1.82 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.60 / defence 1.21 against Bologna attack 1.26 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 17% | Draw 23% | Bologna 61%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.39 PPG, Bologna 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.