Parma 2-3 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Parma take on Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Parma welcome Udinese to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Parma are significantly better at Stadio Ennio Tardini than their overall form suggests.
Udinese — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Parma) versus 1.60 (Udinese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Udinese in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 63% and Udinese 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 51% | Udinese 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.08 xG and Udinese 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.903 / defence 1.040 | Udinese attack 0.959 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.134. Data: 3 Parma games / 41 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 30% | Draw 37% | Udinese 33%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Udinese 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 70% | Udinese 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Monday 16 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 30% | Draw 37% | Udinese 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 49% | xG Parma 1.08 / Udinese 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.903 / def 1.040 | Udinese attack 0.959 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Udinese xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Udinese kick off?
Parma vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 16 September 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Udinese?
Parma 2 - 3 Udinese.
Where is Parma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Udinese part of?
Parma vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 30% chance of winning, Udinese a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Parma and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Udinese in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.90x the league average against Udinese's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.31
37%
2.70
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Parma xG
Total xG
2.21
1.13
Udinese xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Parma and 1.13 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Parma have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 22W 14D 5L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 8W 20D 13L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Parma have posted 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (11W 8D 1L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 5W 9D 6L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.00 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Udinese in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 22W 14D 5L in their last 41 games (1.95 PPG), while Udinese have gone 8W 20D 13L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Udinese away?
Parma's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 2.05 PPG; Udinese away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Parma or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
0
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 70%, Udinese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 45% for Parma and 25% for Udinese.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Parma's games and 50% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Parma's recent games and 25% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Udinese tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Udinese in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Parma 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Parma 2-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.08 xG and Udinese 1.13 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Udinese attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 30% | Draw 37% | Udinese 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 51%, Udinese 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.