Napoli 2-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Napoli welcome AS Roma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Napoli have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Napoli are significantly better at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Napoli) versus 1.90 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Napoli hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for AS Roma, with 4 draws in between.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Napoli winning.
The historical record gives Napoli a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 44% versus AS Roma 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Napoli 47% | AS Roma 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.08 xG and AS Roma 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.145 / defence 0.803 | AS Roma attack 0.896 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.219. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Napoli games / 62 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 39% | Draw 32% | AS Roma 29%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | AS Roma 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 70% | AS Roma 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 39% | Draw 32% | AS Roma 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Napoli 1.08 / AS Roma 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.145 / def 0.803 | AS Roma attack 0.896 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Napoli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.88
AS Roma xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs AS Roma kick off?
Napoli vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs AS Roma?
Napoli 2 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Napoli vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs AS Roma part of?
Napoli vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 39% chance of winning, AS Roma a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Napoli and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and AS Roma?
Record (9 meetings): Napoli 4W | Draws 4 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Napoli and AS Roma in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Napoli's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.16
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Napoli xG
Total xG
1.95
0.88
AS Roma xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Napoli and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Napoli and 0.88 for AS Roma, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 39W 14D 9L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 35W 10D 17L from 62 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Napoli on 2.11 PPG, AS Roma on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Napoli have posted 2.40 PPG from 30 outings (22W 6D 2L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 14W 6D 10L from 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Napoli are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.37 scored and 0.79 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; AS Roma in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 39W 14D 9L in their last 62 games (2.11 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 35W 10D 17L in their last 62 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or AS Roma away?
Napoli's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.40 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Napoli or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, AS Roma in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Napoli and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Napoli's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Napoli
5
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, AS Roma have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Napoli 2-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and AS Roma?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 50%, AS Roma 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Napoli) and 27% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AS Roma in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Napoli's recent matches and 40% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Napoli's recent games and 27% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and AS Roma tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli and AS Roma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 25, as Napoli and AS Roma drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.08 xG and AS Roma 0.88 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Roma outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against AS Roma attack 0.90 / defence 0.76, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 39% | Draw 32% | AS Roma 29%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 47%, AS Roma 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Napoli 2.11 PPG, AS Roma 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.