Napoli 2-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 34 as Napoli welcome AS Roma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Napoli have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Napoli's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Napoli register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Napoli have won 2, AS Roma 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 49% versus AS Roma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 54% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.15 xG and AS Roma 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.944 / defence 1.194 | AS Roma attack 1.167 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.186. Data: 71 Napoli games / 71 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 26% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 48%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 2.08. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 70% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 26% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Napoli 1.15 / AS Roma 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.944 / def 1.194 | AS Roma attack 1.167 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.65
AS Roma xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs AS Roma kick off?
Napoli vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs AS Roma?
Napoli 2 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Napoli vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs AS Roma part of?
Napoli vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 26% chance of winning, AS Roma a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Napoli and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and AS Roma?
Record (5 meetings): Napoli 2W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Napoli and AS Roma in?
Napoli (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Napoli's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
26%
3.88
26%
3.86
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.80
1.65
AS Roma xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
5%
20.26
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Napoli and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Napoli and 1.65 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Napoli have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 41W 16D 14L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 35W 16D 20L from 71 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Napoli on 1.96 PPG, AS Roma on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Napoli have posted 1.94 PPG from 35 outings (20W 8D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 13W 10D 12L from 35 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Napoli are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.54 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 41W 16D 14L in their last 71 games (1.96 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 35W 16D 20L in their last 71 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or AS Roma away?
Napoli's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.94 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Napoli or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, AS Roma in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Napoli and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Napoli's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Napoli
5
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, AS Roma have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Napoli 2-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and AS Roma?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Napoli see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 54%, AS Roma 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Napoli) and 54% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Napoli's games and 63% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Napoli vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Napoli's matches and 54% of AS Roma's.
Do Napoli and AS Roma tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli and AS Roma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli and AS Roma finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.15 xG and AS Roma 1.65 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against AS Roma attack 1.17 / defence 0.92, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 26% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 48%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 54%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Napoli 1.96 PPG, AS Roma 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.