Monza 3-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monza host Salernitana at U-Power Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's home record at U-Power Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Salernitana have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Monza 1.30 PPG, Salernitana 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Monza in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Salernitana in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 50% versus Salernitana 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 54% | Salernitana 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.32 xG and Salernitana 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.847 / defence 1.064 | Salernitana attack 1.005 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.131. Data: 14 Monza games / 52 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 38% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 33%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Salernitana 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monza 50% | Salernitana 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 38% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Monza 1.32 / Salernitana 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.847 / def 1.064 | Salernitana attack 1.005 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Monza (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Salernitana xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Salernitana kick off?
Monza vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Salernitana?
Monza 3 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Monza vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Salernitana part of?
Monza vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 38% chance of winning, Salernitana a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monza and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Salernitana in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Salernitana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Monza's attack rating (0.85) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
38%
2.61
29%
3.49
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Monza xG
Total xG
2.53
1.21
Salernitana xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Monza and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Monza and 1.21 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Monza come into this having played 52 games, going 26W 8D 18L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.92 PPG from 52 outings (11W 15D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Monza's home form reads 17W 3D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.00 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 26W 8D 18L in their last 52 games (1.65 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 15D 26L in their last 52 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Salernitana away?
Monza's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.08 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Monza or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Salernitana in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Monza go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Monza won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monza's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Monza
0
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Salernitana?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 3, Salernitana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Salernitana 0-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Salernitana?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Salernitana 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Monza) and 58% (Salernitana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Salernitana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monza's recent matches and 58% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Monza's matches and 58% of Salernitana's.
Do Monza and Salernitana tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Salernitana 3-0 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.32 xG and Salernitana 1.21 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salernitana landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Salernitana attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 38% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 33%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 54%, Salernitana 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salernitana's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.