Lazio 1-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lazio at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Udinese encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Lazio host Udinese at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Monday 11 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lazio stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Lazio at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Udinese have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Udinese's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Lazio are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lazio have won 2, Udinese 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2024, ended Lazio 2–1 Udinese — a Lazio win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Lazio in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Udinese in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 40% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 42% | Udinese 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lazio surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Udinese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.08 xG and Udinese 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.742 / defence 0.792 | Udinese attack 0.771 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.212. Lazio's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Udinese's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Lazio have a tight defence (rating 0.792), which is pulling Udinese's projected output down. Data: built from Lazio's last 65 games and Udinese's last 65.

Result probabilities: Lazio 42% | Draw 34% | Udinese 24%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.37 | Draw 2.95 | Udinese 4.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Udinese's lower xG of 0.74 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lazio's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lazio 30% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights