Lazio 3-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 17 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lazio have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 1L across 8 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.75 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lazio are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 1W 4D 4L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Lazio's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lazio 65% and Genoa 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lazio 76% | Genoa 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 2.28 xG and Genoa 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.349 / defence 1.311 | Genoa attack 0.714 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.413. Lazio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Lazio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Lazio games / 17 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 59% | Draw 20% | Genoa 21%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Genoa 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Lazio (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 62% | Genoa 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 59% | Draw 20% | Genoa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Lazio 2.28 / Genoa 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.349 / def 1.311 | Genoa attack 0.714 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Lazio (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Genoa xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Genoa kick off?
Lazio vs Genoa kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Lazio 3 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Lazio vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Genoa part of?
Lazio vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 59% chance of winning, Genoa a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lazio and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lazio and Genoa in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lazio's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.71x) against Lazio's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
59%
1.70
20%
5.09
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Lazio xG
Total xG
3.60
1.32
Genoa xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
10%
9.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
2%
45.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Lazio and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Lazio and 1.32 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio's recent record stands at 7W 4D 6L from 17 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 9L across 17 games — 0.59 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 5W 2D 1L from 8 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Lazio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Genoa's away record stands at 1W 4D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.06 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Genoa in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 7D 9L in their last 17 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Genoa away?
Lazio's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 2.12 PPG; Genoa away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 1-4 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Lazio
0
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Lazio have won 7, Genoa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Lazio 3-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Genoa?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 62%, Genoa 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Lazio and 50% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lazio's games and 62% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Lazio's matches and 50% of Genoa's.
Do Lazio and Genoa tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Genoa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Genoa 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 2.28 xG and Genoa 1.32 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.35 / defence 1.31 against Genoa attack 0.71 / defence 1.33, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 59% | Draw 20% | Genoa 21%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 76%, Genoa 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.