Juventus 0-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Juventus take on Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 31 as Juventus welcome Inter to Allianz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventus stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inter — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Inter's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Juventus are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juventus, 0 for Inter and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Inter trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 48% versus Inter 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 28% | Inter 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 0.90 xG and Inter 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.954 / defence 0.752 | Inter attack 0.940 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.258. Juventus's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Juventus games / 29 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 32% | Draw 36% | Inter 32%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Inter 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 20% | Inter 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 32% | Draw 36% | Inter 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Juventus 0.90 / Inter 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.954 / def 0.752 | Inter attack 0.940 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Inter xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Inter kick off?
Juventus vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Inter?
Juventus 0 - 1 Inter.
Where is Juventus vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Inter part of?
Juventus vs Inter is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 32% chance of winning, Inter a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Juventus and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Juventus 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 0W.
What form are Juventus and Inter in?
Juventus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventus's attack at 0.95x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
36%
2.76
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Juventus xG
Total xG
1.79
0.89
Inter xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 14.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Juventus and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Juventus and 0.89 for Inter, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Juventus have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 17W 7D 5L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 17W 9D 3L from 29 games, 2.07 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 2.00 PPG, Inter on 2.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L).
On the road, Inter have gone 7W 6D 1L from 14 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.14 scored and 0.83 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into Juventus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Inter in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Inter in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 17W 7D 5L in their last 29 games (2.00 PPG), while Inter have gone 17W 9D 3L in their last 29 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Inter away?
Juventus's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.14 PPG; Inter away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Juventus or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Inter in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventus and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
3
Draws
3
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Inter have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Inter 3-2 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Inter?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 36%, Inter 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Juventus and 50% for Inter.
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Inter in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Juventus's recent matches and 57% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Juventus's recent games and 50% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Inter tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Inter in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Inter defy the odds to beat Juventus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Juventus 0-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 0.90 xG and Inter 0.89 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juventus fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.95 / defence 0.75 against Inter attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 32% | Draw 36% | Inter 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Inter win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 28%, Inter 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 2.00 PPG, Inter 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.