Juventus vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventus host AS Roma at Allianz Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 5W 3D 2L at Allianz Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AS Roma — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Juventus have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 10 past contests while AS Roma have managed just 1 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The historical record gives Juventus a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Juventus in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 44% versus AS Roma 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventus 38% | AS Roma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.02 xG and AS Roma 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.074 / defence 0.767 | AS Roma attack 1.154 / defence 0.657. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.657 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Juventus's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Juventus games / 45 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 33% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 37%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | AS Roma 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Juventus dominate the H2H record, yet AS Roma are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 30% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 33% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Juventus 1.02 / AS Roma 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.074 / def 0.767 | AS Roma attack 1.154 / def 0.657 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.10
AS Roma xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs AS Roma kick off?
Juventus vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Allianz Stadium.
Where is Juventus vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs AS Roma part of?
Juventus vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 33% chance of winning, AS Roma a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juventus and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AS Roma?
Record (10 meetings): Juventus 4W | Draws 5 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Juventus and AS Roma in?
Juventus (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juventus's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
33%
3.02
30%
3.36
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.12
1.10
AS Roma xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Juventus and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Juventus and 1.10 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventus come into this having played 45 games, going 22W 14D 9L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 2.00 PPG from 45 outings (28W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.78 PPG, AS Roma on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juventus's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.73 points per game from 22 outings (12W 2D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.67 scored and 0.76 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; AS Roma in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 22W 14D 9L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 28W 6D 11L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or AS Roma away?
Juventus's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.86 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Juventus or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, AS Roma in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventus and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
5
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, AS Roma have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when AS Roma 3-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and AS Roma?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 46%, AS Roma 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Juventus) and 41% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; AS Roma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Juventus's recent matches and 36% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Juventus's recent games and 41% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and AS Roma tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.