Inter 1-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to Inter versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
AS Roma (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Inter 2W, AS Roma 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
AS Roma — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 60% versus AS Roma 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 64% | AS Roma 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.76 xG and AS Roma 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.292 / defence 0.794 | AS Roma attack 1.025 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.120. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Inter's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Inter games / 45 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 56% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 18%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Inter (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Inter 40% | AS Roma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 56% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Inter 1.76 / AS Roma 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.292 / def 0.794 | AS Roma attack 1.025 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Inter (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.91
AS Roma xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs AS Roma kick off?
Inter vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Inter 1 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Inter vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs AS Roma part of?
Inter vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 56% chance of winning, AS Roma a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Inter and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Inter 2W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 0W.
What form are Inter and AS Roma in?
Inter (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Inter's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.02x) against Inter's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.76
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Inter xG
Total xG
2.68
0.91
AS Roma xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
33.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Inter and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Inter and 0.91 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Inter have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 29W 9D 7L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma's form line: 22W 10D 13L from 45 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Roma.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.45 PPG from 22 outings (17W 3D 2L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 9W 4D 9L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inter are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.49 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; AS Roma in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 29W 9D 7L in their last 45 games (2.13 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 22W 10D 13L in their last 45 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or AS Roma away?
Inter's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.45 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Inter or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AS Roma in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 0-3 on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Inter
0
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 8, AS Roma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inter and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Inter 5-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Inter and AS Roma?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 50%, AS Roma 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Inter) and 54% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Inter's recent matches and 59% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Inter's matches and 54% of AS Roma's.
Do Inter and AS Roma tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Roma defy the odds to beat Inter 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Inter 1-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.76 xG and AS Roma 0.91 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.29 / defence 0.79 against AS Roma attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 56% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 18%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a AS Roma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 64%, AS Roma 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.69. Form was overturned, with AS Roma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.