Hellas Verona 0-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Udinese meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Udinese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Hellas Verona, 1 for Udinese and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Udinese — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 57% versus Udinese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 59% | Udinese 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.25 xG and Udinese 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.891 / defence 1.453 | Udinese attack 1.019 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.358. Data: 56 Hellas Verona games / 56 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 22% | Udinese 55%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Udinese 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 50% | Udinese 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 22% | Udinese 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Hellas Verona 1.25 / Udinese 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.891 / def 1.453 | Udinese attack 1.019 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Udinese (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Udinese xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Udinese kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Hellas Verona 0 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Udinese part of?
Hellas Verona vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 24% chance of winning, Udinese a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hellas Verona and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
Record (6 meetings): Hellas Verona 2W | Draws 3 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Udinese in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.02x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
24%
4.25
22%
4.64
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.26
2.01
Udinese xG
4.25
24%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
3%
31.70
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 2.01 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 11D 30L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.09 PPG from 56 outings (13W 22D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.09 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 9W 6D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (8W 10D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.07 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Udinese in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 15W 11D 30L in their last 56 games (1.00 PPG), while Udinese have gone 13W 22D 21L in their last 56 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.18 PPG; Udinese away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hellas Verona won 4-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
5
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Udinese have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 61%, Udinese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Hellas Verona) and 39% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hellas Verona's games and 57% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 39% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Udinese tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Udinese in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hellas Verona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 19, as Hellas Verona and Udinese drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.25 xG and Udinese 2.01 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Udinese landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.89 / defence 1.45 against Udinese attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 22% | Udinese 55%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 59%, Udinese 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.00 PPG, Udinese 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.