Hellas Verona 2-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi to face Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 9 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.10 PPG for Hellas Verona against 0.50 for Cremonese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hellas Verona register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Cremonese in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Cremonese — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 74% and Cremonese 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 61% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.53 xG and Cremonese 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.888 / defence 1.331 | Cremonese attack 0.903 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.120. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Hellas Verona games / 16 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 40% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 32%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 70% | Cremonese 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 9 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 40% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Hellas Verona 1.53 / Cremonese 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.888 / def 1.331 | Cremonese attack 0.903 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Cremonese xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Cremonese kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 9 January 2023 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Hellas Verona 2 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Cremonese part of?
Hellas Verona vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 40% chance of winning, Cremonese a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hellas Verona and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Cremonese in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Cremonese (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.90x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.62
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.87
1.35
Cremonese xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
7%
14.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.35 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hellas Verona come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 14D 25L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.41 PPG from 54 outings (20W 16D 18L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.41 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hellas Verona's home form reads 10W 3D 14L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.26 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 15W 14D 25L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.22 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Cremonese have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Cremonese?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Hellas Verona, 59% for Cremonese — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Hellas Verona and 52% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Hellas Verona's games and 59% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Hellas Verona's matches and 52% of Cremonese's.
Do Hellas Verona and Cremonese tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Cremonese 2-0 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.53 xG and Cremonese 1.35 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.89 / defence 1.33 against Cremonese attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 40% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 32%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 61%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.09 PPG, Cremonese 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.