Hellas Verona 3-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atalanta are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Atalanta have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Hellas Verona's 1 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 0–5 with Atalanta winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atalanta have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Atalanta in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 45% versus Atalanta 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 47% | Atalanta 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.05 xG and Atalanta 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.858 / defence 1.158 | Atalanta attack 0.996 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.141. Data: 51 Hellas Verona games / 51 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 41%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Atalanta 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 60% | Atalanta 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Hellas Verona 1.05 / Atalanta 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.858 / def 1.158 | Atalanta attack 0.996 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Atalanta xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Hellas Verona 3 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta part of?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 29% chance of winning, Atalanta a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hellas Verona and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
Record (8 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 6W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Atalanta in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Atalanta (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.86x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
29%
3.49
30%
3.34
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.37
1.32
Atalanta xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.32 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 51 games, going 10W 13D 28L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.76 PPG from 51 outings (25W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 4W 8D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.92 points per game from 25 outings (14W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.84 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 13D 28L in their last 51 games (0.84 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 25W 15D 11L in their last 51 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.80 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Atalanta in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Atalanta won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
7
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Atalanta have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 44%, Atalanta 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hellas Verona) and 52% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 48%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 40% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 52% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Atalanta tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Atalanta.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Atalanta 3-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.05 xG and Atalanta 1.32 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Atalanta attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 41%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 47%, Atalanta 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.