Genoa 1-3 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 4L across 7 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (0.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sampdoria — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sampdoria — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 56% versus Sampdoria 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genoa 62% | Sampdoria 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.11 xG and Sampdoria 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.662 / defence 1.316 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.447. Genoa's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Genoa games / 16 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 28% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 46%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Sampdoria 2.17. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 57% | Sampdoria 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 28% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Genoa 1.11 / Sampdoria 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.662 / def 1.316 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sampdoria xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Sampdoria kick off?
Genoa vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Sampdoria?
Genoa 1 - 3 Sampdoria.
Where is Genoa vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Sampdoria part of?
Genoa vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 28% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Genoa and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Sampdoria in?
Genoa (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.66) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.89
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.61
1.50
Sampdoria xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
6%
15.94
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Genoa and 1.50 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa's recent record stands at 1W 7D 8L from 16 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 9L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 0.62 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 0W 3D 4L from 7 games — 0.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.38 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 7D 8L in their last 16 games (0.62 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.43 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Genoa
0
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sampdoria?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Sampdoria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Sampdoria 1-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 57%, Sampdoria 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Genoa and 71% for Sampdoria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 43%; Genoa have failed to score in 43% of games; Sampdoria in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Genoa's recent matches and 43% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Genoa's matches and 71% of Sampdoria's.
Do Genoa and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Genoa 1-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.11 xG and Sampdoria 1.50 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.66 / defence 1.32 against Sampdoria attack 0.79 / defence 1.33, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 28% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 46%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 62%, Sampdoria 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 0.62 PPG, Sampdoria 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.