Genoa 1-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fiorentina at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.67. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fiorentina are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Genoa register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Fiorentina in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fiorentina trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genoa 67% and Fiorentina 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genoa 100% | Fiorentina 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.43 xG and Fiorentina 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.906 / defence 1.225 | Fiorentina attack 0.919 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.366. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Genoa games / 3 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 35% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 40%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Fiorentina 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 67% | Fiorentina 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 35% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Genoa 1.43 / Fiorentina 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.906 / def 1.225 | Fiorentina attack 0.919 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Fiorentina xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Fiorentina kick off?
Genoa vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Genoa 1 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Genoa vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Fiorentina part of?
Genoa vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 35% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Genoa and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.91x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
35%
2.83
24%
4.10
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.97
1.54
Fiorentina xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Genoa and 1.54 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Fiorentina in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2022, when Fiorentina won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Fiorentina have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Genoa at 67%, Fiorentina at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Genoa and 100% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Genoa's games and 100% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Genoa's matches and 100% of Fiorentina's.
Do Genoa and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Genoa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Genoa 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.43 xG and Fiorentina 1.54 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.91 / defence 1.23 against Fiorentina attack 0.92 / defence 1.29, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 35% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 40%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 100%, Fiorentina 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.