Genoa 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to AS Roma, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with AS Roma winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus AS Roma 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 48% | AS Roma 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.18 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.132 / defence 1.081 | AS Roma attack 0.989 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.190. Data: 65 Genoa games / 65 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 39%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | AS Roma 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Genoa 1.18 / AS Roma 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.132 / def 1.081 | AS Roma attack 0.989 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.27
AS Roma xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs AS Roma kick off?
Genoa vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Genoa 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Genoa vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs AS Roma part of?
Genoa vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 34% chance of winning, AS Roma a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genoa and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
Record (7 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 4W.
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Genoa's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.99x) against Genoa's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
34%
2.92
27%
3.67
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.46
1.27
AS Roma xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Genoa and 1.27 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 65 games, going 16W 22D 27L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.85 PPG from 65 outings (36W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 9W 10D 13L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.56 points per game from 32 outings (14W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.43 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 16W 22D 27L in their last 65 games (1.08 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 36W 12D 17L in their last 65 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.16 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Genoa or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AS Roma in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Genoa 2-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 47%, AS Roma 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Genoa) and 28% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 41%; Genoa have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Genoa's recent matches and 41% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Genoa's recent games and 28% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and AS Roma tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat AS Roma 2-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.18 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.13 / defence 1.08 against AS Roma attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 39%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 48%, AS Roma 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.