Fiorentina 2-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Torino travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fiorentina 1.10 PPG, Torino 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Torino and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Torino in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 61% versus Torino 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 61% | Torino 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.75 xG and Torino 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.090 / defence 1.096 | Torino attack 0.876 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.168. Torino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Fiorentina games / 61 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 52% | Draw 24% | Torino 24%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Torino 4.17. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 80% | Torino 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 52% | Draw 24% | Torino 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Fiorentina 1.75 / Torino 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.090 / def 1.096 | Torino attack 0.876 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Torino xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Torino kick off?
Fiorentina vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Torino?
Fiorentina 2 - 2 Torino.
Where is Fiorentina vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Torino part of?
Fiorentina vs Torino is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 52% chance of winning, Torino a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fiorentina and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Torino?
Record (9 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 4 | Torino 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and Torino in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Torino (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.09x the league average against Torino's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.15
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.87
1.12
Torino xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
4%
24.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.12 for Torino, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 16D 23L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 17W 19D 25L from 61 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.34 PPG, Torino on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L).
On the road, Torino have gone 7W 10D 13L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Torino in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 22W 16D 23L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Torino have gone 17W 19D 25L in their last 61 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Torino away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.63 PPG; Torino away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Torino in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Torino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jan 2022, when Torino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
5
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Torino have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fiorentina 2-2 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Torino?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 63%, Torino 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Fiorentina) and 43% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 43% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Fiorentina's recent games and 43% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Torino tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Torino in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Torino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina and Torino finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.75 xG and Torino 1.12 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Torino outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against Torino attack 0.88 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 52% | Draw 24% | Torino 24%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 61%, Torino 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.34 PPG, Torino 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.