Fiorentina 2-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fiorentina and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 6W 0D 2L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.62 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sassuolo's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.38 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Sassuolo in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 59% and Sassuolo 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fiorentina 76% | Sassuolo 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.59 xG and Sassuolo 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.474 / defence 1.048 | Sassuolo attack 1.124 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.480. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.474 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Fiorentina games / 17 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 56% | Draw 18% | Sassuolo 25%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.79 | Draw 5.56 | Sassuolo 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 62% | Sassuolo 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 56% | Draw 18% | Sassuolo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 76% | xG Fiorentina 2.59 / Sassuolo 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.474 / def 1.048 | Sassuolo attack 1.124 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Sassuolo xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kick off?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Fiorentina 2 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo part of?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 56% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 25% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Fiorentina and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fiorentina and Sassuolo in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.59. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (1.12x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (6.7%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
56%
1.78
18%
5.42
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
4.33
1.74
Sassuolo xG
1.78
56%
Home win
5.42
18%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.22
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
8%
13.30
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
2%
52.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.74 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 4.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 17 games, going 10W 0D 7L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 6W 0D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.65 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 82%.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 10W 0D 7L in their last 17 games (1.76 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Sassuolo away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.25 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 5-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Sassuolo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 88% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Fiorentina, 100% for Sassuolo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fiorentina and 100% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fiorentina's games and 100% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fiorentina's matches and 100% of Sassuolo's.
Do Fiorentina and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina and Sassuolo finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.59 xG and Sassuolo 1.74 xG, a combined 4.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.47 / defence 1.05 against Sassuolo attack 1.12 / defence 1.41, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 56% | Draw 18% | Sassuolo 25%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 76%, Sassuolo 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.